The CFL King is a research tool for CFL player props. For every player and market — passing, rushing and receiving — we project a realistic number, turn it into a probability at the posted line, and surface the spots where our number disagrees with the market. Here's the whole approach, in plain English.
We start from official CFL.ca game logs — every player's passing, rushing and receiving numbers, game by game, with history back to 2022. We work in per-game terms so short seasons and missed games don't distort the picture.
What a player has done lately tells you more about his current role than a game from a year ago. We lean on the last few weeks most heavily, while still letting older form count.
A three-game hot streak isn't a new normal. We temper small hot or cold stretches against a player's fuller body of work, so the projection stays stable instead of overreacting to noise.
That gives us a projected number for each stat — passing, rushing and receiving. When a line is posted, we also show the chance the player goes over it, accounting for how much his results normally bounce around game to game.
When a line is posted, we show how far our number sits from it. Player-prop lines are sharp, so we keep this honest and modest — it's a research signal, not a promise of profit.
We weigh the size of that gap against how much data stands behind the projection, and sort each pick into a tier so you can see our conviction at a glance.
Strongest reads — biggest gap, deepest sample.
A clear lean we're comfortable surfacing.
A smaller lean worth a look.
Little to no lean, or projection-only — shown for research.
Once games finish, every posted pick is graded — win, loss, or push — and kept in the track record by tier. Nothing gets quietly deleted.
See how accurate our numbers are → — a plain check of whether our percentages hold up against what actually happens. It's an accuracy check, not a betting record.
No. Player props are inherently uncertain and even our best reads lose regularly. Lines are sharp, so we make no claim to beat the market — our aim is an honest, useful number, which is exactly why we publish a transparent track record.
Player game logs run back to 2022, sourced from official CFL.ca box scores. More history means each projection is grounded in real production, not a tiny sample.
Because we keep it honest. Sharp lines rarely leave a big, reliable gap on a single prop, so we'd rather show a small honest number — or none at all on projection-only rows — than an inflated one.
As an information tool, not financial advice. Only ever risk money you can afford to lose, and treat every projection as an estimate carrying real uncertainty.
The CFL King is for entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. If gambling is no longer fun, it's time to stop — please play responsibly.